Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will meet Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday, a visit that signals the Indian leader's determination to stick to his own diplomatic course, even as the West continues to isolate Moscow over the war. in Ukraine.
For Mr. Putin, Mr. Modi's visit will be a way for Russia to show that the Kremlin continues to have a strong partnership with India despite India's deepening relationship with the United States. India's purchases of discounted Russian oil have helped fill Russia's coffers depleted by international sanctions over the war, and Russia has sought to cast India as a partner in reshaping the Western-dominated world order.
This is Mr Modi's first visit to Russia in five years. He landed in Moscow on Monday and will attend a dinner hosted by Mr Putin. Formal talks are scheduled for Tuesday.
Mr Modi arrived on a day when Russia launched a brutal aerial bombardment against Ukraine, including a strike on that country's largest children's hospital, in Kiev. The attack has drawn condemnation from the West and could cast a harsh light on India's ties with Russia.
The South Asian nation has become a major buyer of cheap Russian oil at a time when sanctions from Western countries have limited what Russia can sell or charge for the product on international markets. India is building massive nuclear power plants with technical assistance from Russia. Russia is also India's largest arms supplier, making the relationship key for India, which has long had to defend its borders against China.
The meeting in Moscow on Tuesday will coincide with the first day of a summit of NATO leaders in Washington. During the NATO meeting, the Western allies are expected to announce additional air defense systems for Ukraine and offer assurances of the alliance's long-term commitment to Kiev's security.
India and Russia are long-standing partners.
Speaking to reporters in New Delhi ahead of Mr Modi's trip, Indian officials said The summit between Mr Modi and Mr Putin was “of great importance”, but he stressed that relations with Russia were not aimed at any third party. They also tried to downplay the timing of the meeting.
“I wouldn't want to read anything more into its significance, other than to say that we attach great importance to this annual summit,” Vinay Mohan Kwatra, India's foreign minister, told a news conference on Friday.
The annual summit is one aspect of a long-standing strategic partnership between India and Russia. The two leaders last met in 2021 as part of this partnership, when Mr Putin visited Delhi. They have met at other events and spoken on the phone several times, Indian officials said.
In the nearly two and a half years since he launched his all-out invasion of Ukraine, Mr. Putin has sought to redouble his relations with world leaders outside the West as he pursues what he calls a “multipolar” world order without sole American dominance.
With its vast economic and military resources, China has become the most critical partner in this effort, but Mr. Putin has also touted relationships with other nations, including Vietnam, Brazil and India, to demonstrate that the Russia will not succumb to the isolation of the West. hopes to see.
At an investment forum in Moscow last December, Mr Putin praised the Indian leader for pursuing an independent foreign policy and refusing to bow to Western pressure. Mr Modi was not “feared, intimidated or coerced into taking actions or decisions that would be against the national interests of India and the Indian people”, Mr Putin said.
India's ties with Moscow and Washington are a balancing act.
For Mr Modi, the meeting is an opportunity to signal India's determination to chart its own foreign policy path. India, which needs both the United States and Russia to counter China, is constantly trying to balance its relations between Washington and Moscow. Although it has strengthened ties with Washington, India has refused to publicly denounce Russia over Ukraine, despite pressure from the United States to do so.
Delhi may be seeking to strengthen ties with Russia to counter Russia's growing rapprochement with China, said Happymon Jacob, an associate professor at Jawaharlal Nehru University and an expert on Indian foreign policy. Mr Putin and China's President Xi Jinping are increasingly aligned after declaring a “borderless” partnership in 2022. (The two leaders hailed their countries' ties at a meeting in Kazakhstan last week.)
India probably realizes that the United States is “unlikely to punish India for its continued relationship with Russia,” Mr. Jacob said, with China emerging as “Washington's main adversary.”
Mr Modi could also address the contentious issue of Russian recruitment of Indian nationals to fight in Ukraine, according to Mr Kwatra, the Indian foreign minister. Several dozen Indian citizens were lured to Russia under “false pretenses,” he said, and the government is working to bring them back.
At the same time, India also needs American support against possible Chinese attacks in its backyard. China and India have had several border clashes over the decades, including in 2022 and 2020, when 20 Indian soldiers and an unknown number of Chinese troops were killed. India needs ammunition to defend its northern and eastern borders.
Military, economic and energy ties are on the agenda.
Russia is India's largest supplier of military equipment, but over the years, the share of Russian weapons has been declining — partly because that country has older technology. India has sought to diversify its military supply sources and pursue defense cooperation agreements, including with the United States. Both the United States and India have also said they will expand cooperation in advanced weapons, supercomputers and other high-tech areas.
However, US officials are concerned about providing equipment and sensitive technology to India if there is a risk that the Russian military could gain access to it. On a recent visit to New Delhi, Kurt Campbell, the US deputy secretary of state, said the United States wanted a strong technological relationship with India and was clear about “which areas are affected by the ongoing relationship between India and Russia militarily and technologically.”
India's defense ties with Russia “may be irritating for the United States, but they are insufficient to derail Washington's military cooperation with India,” said Nandan Unnikrishnan, who oversees the Eurasia Studies program at the Observer Research Foundation. .
Mr Unnikrishnan said he did not expect India to announce new military purchases from Russia during the summit. But he thought the leaders might announce deals on trade and investment and energy cooperation.
Indian officials said the country's trade imbalance with Russia would be a priority for Mr Modi. India exports only $4 billion worth of goods to Russia and imports $65 billion, much of it due to purchases of massive amounts of oil. India wants to increase its exports to Russia across the board, including agriculture, pharmaceuticals and services.
Paul Sonne contributed to this report from Berlin.